Meridian Kenya / Growth Monitor · Public edition
Growth Monitor, fourth quarter 2026
A quarterly read of what changed in Kenya's markets. Clients receive the full edition with every place named.
This quarter
National night-time light changed +4.7% in 2025.
- 24 places entered or left our five-site sector portfolios when we updated the growth model this quarter.
- Rainfall from June 2026 to August 2026 was at least half below normal in 15 counties; the full edition names them and the size of the shortfall.
- Outlook to 2031: national light is far more likely to grow than to shrink. Even in the downside scenario the chance of contraction is 6.8%.
In the full edition
- The ten sub-counties that gained and lost most share of Kenya's night-time light
- Rainfall against normal for every county over the last three months
- Every portfolio change with its reason
- Unrest in the past 52 weeks: the counties with the most demonstrations and political violence
- The national outlook under three scenarios
Preview
| Change | Sector | Sub-county | Rank before | Rank now | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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